Predicting Presidental Elections

Author John Cassidy discusses some of the previous presidential election prediction model developed by other economists in his paper located at: http://www.portfolio.con/views/columns/economics/2008/01/14/Predicting-the-Presidential-Election#

Mr. Cassidy reviews three of the leading models. All of the models based their predictions not on what the presidential candidates were citing as their platforms but upon leading economic indicators such as US gross domestic product over a given time frame, the US inflation rate, the average per capita income growth rate of disposable income, and such non-economic statistics as the number of American combat fatalities in any current conflict or the current president’s approval rating.

Mr. Cassidy’s description of the models leaves the reader to conclude that each of the models that he is reviewing is based upon just two criteria. As examples he states that Yale University Professors Ray Fair’s model used two key variables (growth rate of US gross domestic product in the same three quarters leading up to the election and the average US inflation rate during the previous 15 quarters) to determine the election’s winner.

The winner in all three models is based upon primarily how well the economy faired during the current president’s term in office. If the economy performance was poor, then a change in party was predicted.

An Introduction

This blog is being maintained by Mike Guinn a student at UMSL. I am doing this for my Dr. Sauter's Decision Support Systems class.